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What will happen with the Rand?

I love to read all the economists’ predictions as to which way the Rand is going.  Every company seems to have a different perspective and they don’t seem to get it right that often.  I saw a publication from the biggest bank in America – JPMorgan -- and in it they say that they maintain fundamentally bearish about our currency. 

They predict that in December this year it will be about R15,20 to the Dollar, weakening to R15,70 by March 2020, R16,20 in June 2020 and R16,50 by September 2020.  They say that the Rand is not overvalued anymore, meaning that they think it is pretty much at its fair value now, although some of us might like it to be stronger, but their worry is that it does not fully price in the negative ratings or portfolio outlook, such as the one we are all expecting from Moody’s in December.  They indicate in their newsletter that they have entered into a short – in other words, they have taken a bet that the Rand will continue to weaken and are going to make money if the Rand does weaken.  They have taken a similar bet against the Russian currency where it is currently 64 Rubles to US$1.

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 Share on Facebook   Tweet It

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Comments

Bianca Taljaard  said:
on Wednesday 26-Feb-20 07:53 AM
This is bad news for SA, whish our Government was smarter as to how to resolve this problem, I'm already panicked about the future of my children in this country.

patrick  said:
on Tuesday 04-Feb-20 04:53 PM
As long as we don't resolve issues relating to electricity, corruption and unemployment, the rand will continue to take a nose dive.I have to agree with Moody;s on this one.

Prishani  said:
on Thursday 23-Jan-20 05:50 PM
I am going to be optimistic by saying that I think our Rand will get stronger! I know all these predictions are educated ones based on the facts and reality. But on this one I am going to try and be positive!

Daniella  said:
on Thursday 23-Jan-20 10:44 AM
I wish the rand would strengthen and stay strong for a long period of time - I really hope that our Government is taking the steps to make the Rand stronger, I really am just hoping for the best.

Brenda Du Toit   said:
on Wednesday 22-Jan-20 03:16 PM
This is very interesting.The rand is getting weaker and weaker everyday.The problem is that our Government must STOP thinking about them self. They must also stop taking our money.

Mathilda Du Preez  said:
on Wednesday 22-Jan-20 10:46 AM
2020 year of positivity !

Let's be optimistic that the rand will get stronger and not weaker.

sandra  said:
on Thursday 16-Jan-20 07:31 AM
The rand is getting weaker each time and we are feeling its consequences. It can easily go up to about R 17,25c by end of this year, depending also on the Political facts

Michelle D  said:
on Tuesday 14-Jan-20 08:45 AM
The problem with currency predictions is that, similarly to stock prices, anything could happen. All it takes is one significant enough event to make the rand strengthen or weaken. If our governing party were to take strong action against all those politicians entangled in the Zondo commission, it will undoubtedly strengthen investor views about the future of our country.

natasha  said:
on Tuesday 14-Jan-20 08:19 AM
If the Government stop taking our money and using it for their own pleasures maybe then our Rand will be better. I think personally i would go overseas just for the money. My one friend is there and she told me that everything is so much cheaper than this side and it makes me wonder. If i could go I would have gone long time ago.It is sad that our Rand is dropping.

Sinead  said:
on Friday 10-Jan-20 04:36 PM
This is very interesting! I love seeing conversions like this... Let's be optimistic and hope the Rand gets stronger!! Especially for those wanting to travel. Although in the bigger picture it doesn't seem to be a huge difference, it really does help....

Prishani  said:
on Friday 10-Jan-20 02:25 PM
I wonder if our government has taken a look at these predictions, it certainly isn't good for South Africans! Are they taking steps to improve this at all, are we just going to ignore this!

Ruby  said:
on Thursday 09-Jan-20 01:46 PM
The rand is also expected to come under further pressure due to the rising conflict between Iran and the US. Lets hope some sanity prevail on both sides.

Michelle Smillie  said:
on Tuesday 07-Jan-20 09:39 AM
Although I don;t have an interest in economics, I am interested to see what the Rand will be at these times, and how far on or off the predictions are. As it currently stands, the Rand is doing better than predicted at R14,90 to the dollar. Let's see if this continues.

Nicolle  said:
on Monday 06-Jan-20 04:20 PM
It seems sort of cruel doesn't it? For people to actively "bet" in a currency weakening. I suppose, at the end of the day, we can only but hope for a flourishing and prosperous future. Some how. Some way.

Ashleigh  said:
on Monday 06-Jan-20 02:21 PM
Very scary what lays in store for SA. I really hope something changes as this beautiful country is going to go down if something doesn't change.

Lourien  said:
on Monday 06-Jan-20 12:09 PM
Well now, I am sure we can all guess what will happen, the rand wound definitely fall during this year to another low. Until our country starts to turn around, I cannot see much happening to our already weakened rand. We can only hope that it will increase. Each day is a struggle for so many people in South Africa, we need a stronger rand and we need our government to start making changes that will make our rand stronger.

Bronwyn  said:
on Friday 20-Dec-19 11:20 AM
If Government would stop stealing the money things might just be a little better, and the ratings might just increase.

Joyce  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 04:57 PM
Let’s hope it does not go according to the JPMorgan predictions, hope that the Rand will strengthens and keeps SA in a not negative ratings situation. Although the Bank sound like they strongly believe in their predictions they go as far as betting.

Zandelee  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 04:55 PM
It is quite sad to see how the rand drops like that. It makes it so difficult for us to travel overseas and easier for people from overseas to come and visit our country which is good for our country again.

Angelique  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 04:50 PM
The effects of a weakened Rand really cripples our country. So how exactly will the government keep its promises? The unemployment rate increases, steep rise in inflation, petrol price increases, not going to be able to travel much as we are poorer etc.

fikile  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 02:08 PM
It is so sad to see our country taking a bad turn like this, but then we need to ask our selves " what is it that makes all of these happen" we all know that the more the same people are given power things won't change, we keep selecting the same people to represent us to the world and when they came back they don't think about us anymore but they think of themselves. It breaks my heart to know that the rand will keep falling and the is nothing i can do to prevent it from falling.

thembi  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 10:05 AM
The SA government they must stop to think for their self they must bring back money to the country.

Alexis  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 09:18 AM
It is a sad reality, especially seeing as bets are being made against it. The state of the country is not so great and one pays an arm and a leg to just to go buy food for the day, though, we all ajust and make do with what we have

Shristi  said:
on Thursday 19-Dec-19 08:17 AM
This is really sad especially because South Africa is such a beautiful country. I think if the government spends more time on fixing the socio-economic crisis the country is going through the rand should strengthen.

Victoria  said:
on Wednesday 18-Dec-19 10:47 AM
It is horrible to see the rand weakening, definitely doesn't help us as the price of everything just carries on increasing. The future in South Africa doesn't look too good at the moment.

Ziyanda  said:
on Wednesday 18-Dec-19 08:26 AM
This saddens me because the poor just get poorer. I hope our government will find ways to stabilize our economy. The government really needs to start caring for its people.

Kayla  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 04:48 PM
To think that other countries are already taking bets on our currency is saddening. Day by Day our currency just weakens and the government has no cares or worries as long as money is sitting in their pockets. We are a laughing stock to the world.

Megan  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 12:37 PM
For people not living in South Africa, I don't think they understand the severity of the rands devaluation especially if they are in a country where their currency is stronger. Its really horrible watching everything go up in price whilst our country is going down... I wish the government would care more about its people than themselves.

Bianca Niemann   said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 09:09 AM
This is terrible news for all of us. Our currency is so weak and we are already struggling to get by as is. I shudder to think about my childrens' future should this continue. If I struggle to get by now, I struggle to imagine how they would survive. The future is certainly overseas, as much as it breaks my heart to admit it. At this rate, our money won't be worth anything in no time.

Sujata  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 08:38 AM
Currency's are highly influenced by political and soci-economic activities so its comfortable for foreign analysts to want the Rand to fall for obvious economic and business reasons. Just as the Pound fluctuated considerably on Forex creating a rather volatile market for traders in the weeks before Theresa May's resignation so will the Rand be influenced considerably over the next year but it will be difficult to depict if it will be bearish or bullish in the coming months. One can only pay considerable attention to international and national political changes that will influence the rand.

Lucretia  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 08:29 AM
It saddens me to see the rand dropping so drastically, makes it harder and harder for us to travel and enjoy other countries. I remember backpacking the UK and Europe in 1993 and when we returned we got back about R4.75 / pound. At the time we were ecstatic because there were rumours it was going to about R4.50 / pound............

clare  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 08:23 AM
If the Rand Keeps dropping her in our Country cost of living in our Country is just gonna go up and up. Unemployment is already at its highest ratings then its ever been, and so is the Crime. Things are not looking Good for us South Africans, I hope that 2020 is going to be the Year that we make a Change, well the government.

Sarah  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 08:13 AM
If the rand keeps weakening then there is a lot of other factors it will effort, employment increases,Imported goods are expected to cost more, this is not only luxury goods, it includes much of the finished goods that we consume daily ranging from technology to tiles.he weaker rand may tilt the scales to a higher net effect for the petrol at the pump. These are just a few mention.

Lets hope the rand can increase a bit and economists’ predictions are wrong

Roxanne  said:
on Tuesday 17-Dec-19 08:10 AM
The SA government need to stop lining their pockets and put the money back into the country and make it better and beautiful again and the maybe we can strengthen the Rand.

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Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
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