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Trump will lose - part 2

I think that Donald Trump is going to get hammered in the US elections next week and no doubt he may bring some court challenges as he has threatened, but I believe he is going to lose in any event – and I am not sure it will be close enough to even make it viable for him to bring court challenges.  He will of course claim that it is the biggest fraud in all history, because he is just simply a man who cannot accept that has lost and isn’t as popular as he believes he is – and the reason for that is that he is a narcissist and can never ever admit defeat or when he is wrong. 

When the history of this election is written and when people look back on 2016, I think one of the factors they will point to, apart from the incompetence of Donald Trump, will be all of those who did not want to support Trump the last time but did not like Hillary Clinton either.  So many of them did not vote at all and I think they have learned their lesson.  When Hillary Clinton said that the next President of America could choose two or three Justices of the Supreme Court people attacked her saying she was being hysterical and that that was not going to happen.  Donald Trump has now selected three Justices of the Supreme Court and all of those who did not vote last time now know the consequences of that decision in 2016 and will, I believe, come out and vote in big numbers. A lot of people don’t appreciate that there are more registered Democrats in America than there are Republicans, and that does not mean that I agree with the Democratic policies, some sections of which do tend to run too close to socialism, but whereas Ronald Reagan sold America capitalism with a heart, we have seen the heartless side of capitalism with Donald Trump.  I think that is going to lead to a resounding defeat for him in the election. 

I think that common decency will win the day and the rest of the world will be so much better off - Donald Trump has certainly not been good for the world. 

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Wednesday 28-Oct-20   |  Permalink   |  44 Comments Comments Share on Facebook   Tweet It
Trump will lose

In 2016 I wrote quite a lot about the elections and I saw Donald as a very real threat to Hillary Clinton for a long time.  I would not have written about it as much as I did if I did not see him as a threat.  His win was unexpected, but not the massive shock that he makes out – it is never really a shock in a 2 horse race if the lesser favourite of the two horses wins.

I think that those who think he is going to repeat it again because he has some magical powers are making two mistakes.  Firstly, it is clear that his business skills have really been overrated – as many have said, it appears that he plays a businessman on TV as opposed to actually ever being a successful businessman.  If he had simply invested his father’s money that he inherited in the S&P Index Fund, the main Stock market index that investors follow, he would have made more money than he is worth now – and that is not a compliment.  That would be 7% or 8% a year and most people who run their own businesses do not make only 7% or 8% a year over the long run.  There would be no benefit to running private businesses if you could only match what the Stock Market could do – you would then just put your money into shares and sit at home and do no work.  So, the whole superstar businessman story is total nonsense.  I am not saying he is not a brilliant marketer and has convinced many people that he is a star businessman, but that is marketing as opposed to being the brilliant businessman. 

The other mistake I think they are making is that people are tired of the division that he has brought.  They are tired of his lack of empathy for people and all of that has been very well illustrated during the whole Covid-19 issue.  The fact of the matter is America has not done well in dealing with Covid-19 and largely it has been because of the leadership of Donald Trump, a man who even after getting Covid-19 still mocks masks and says they are not really effective.  One wonders how many people have died, while listening to the President of America, who really just talks nonsense either to appeal to his base or perhaps, mistakenly, because he is just not very bright and has not studied any of the signs.  In that regard, he is surrounded by top scientists but he has replaced the advice of Dr Fauci with a radiologist. So, right now, the President of America is advised, when it comes to viruses, not by a doctor who specialises in viruses but by a person who specialises in reading X-rays!

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Tuesday 27-Oct-20   |  Permalink   |  48 Comments Comments Share on Facebook   Tweet It
Covid-19 and death statistics

I wrote some time ago it will take some years before we discover the true number of people that have died.  Sadly, we all fall into the trap of saying that things are not so bad, or that the statistics have improved.  We ignore the fact that even in advanced countries, like the United States, not everyone is getting tested.  Statistics indicate that in America the average number of deaths for this year so far is running at about 40,000 higher than the normal deaths plus Covid-19 death.  So there are an extra 40 000 dead this year so far, but not accounted for in Covid-19 deaths.  In other words, what that means is that the American death toll, currently at approximately 215,000 from Covid-19 is more than likely to be really 255,000 or maybe people are just dropping dead from unusual conditions this year?

The bottom line is, if countries like America can’t even get their statistics right, what are the odds that those statistics are really correct in South Africa?  When I wrote about this before I said that it will only be in 3 or 4 years’ time, in most countries, that they will know the true death toll, and that the death toll at any given time will be higher than what we think it is.  Based on American statistics we know that the SA statistic must probably be at least 20% more people that died than the figure we are given on a daily basis – currently at 18 500.

 

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Monday 19-Oct-20   |  Permalink   |  53 Comments Comments Share on Facebook   Tweet It

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Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
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